Proposal of Virtual Transportation Industry: Idealization of Transportation Systems with Social Systems Navigation -- Yoshi Horiuchi
ISSS Meeting at Asilomar, June 28-July 2, 1999
- Paper session, June 30, 1999, 3:45 p.m., hosted by Enrique Herrscher
These participant's notes were created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. These should not be viewed as official transcripts of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. These notes have been contributed by David Ing (http://coevolving.com) at the IBM Advanced Business Institute ( http://www.ibm.com/abi ).
Yoshi Horiuchi
Idealizing our future on problems that we can't solve.
- What about automobile transportation?
- Not a specialist in computer simulation.
Florida State U.: transportation as the "movement of people, objectives and/or information".
- Government regulation is just reducing the rate of increase.
Why are we traveling by automobile?
- People of driving age in various countries -- increasing.
- Estimate of vehicle ownership: increasing at a rate faster than total population.
Ideal form of transportation: walking.
- Inexpensive, easy to park, no fear of speeding tickets.
New York 1875 traffic jam; 1917 traffic jam
- Have had traffic jams since the Romans.
Plot: Log (traveling distance) versus income by country: increases.
Plot: time spent on travel versus income -- flat.
- Clusters: Africa villages, urban, and then recreation
- Most people spent 1 to 1.5 hours per day (except Japanese at 2 hours).
- People spend the same time, but richer means traveling farther.
Traffic policy:
- Increase short-term supply: traffic management
- Reduce long-term demand: urban regional planning
- Increase short-term supply: construction and new technologies.
Three reasons for traveling: Hedonics of transportation
- Type A tourist: to a destination for sightseeing.
- Type B: Driving as purpose of the trip.
- Automobile Enthusiast. Automobile as hobby.
- Automobile Ownership Enthusiast: (a fourth one which Yoshi suggests).
Ackoff's approach to interactive management.
Crude virtual transportation: Bike trainer plus tv monitor.
Virtual reality: can make it quasi-real, e.g. fish in air, not in water.
Need to develop a new alternative life goal.
- Need a virtual Orient Express
Questions
Henry Ford was an egocentric manager. What would Ford or GM think?
Actually, no money in actually producing cars.
Not just the car manufacturers: there's also petroleum, steel, ...
In many parts of Africa, people walk everyone, and are healthier. Northern countries are marketing consumer products. Highways being built, with the assumption that consumerism will come.
- In Japan as child, there were three Cs desired: cars, color tv and air conditioning. Cars are desirable around the world.
Average number of people in cars is 1.5. Therefore 2-person cars, instead of 4 or 5 passenger.
Driving in the U.S. as a deeply aesthetic experience. On the other hand, walking around Paris is of an equally value.